Cuan Mandiri
Info saham mandiri - Cuan Mandiri
Selasa, 14 Agustus 2012
Reaksi pasar Obligasi Indonesia
Reaksi pasar Obligasi Indonesia
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GIDN10YR:IND
Moneter: Posisi Current Account makin MEMBURUK
Sumber: CS
Dikeluarkan BI hari Jumat, mungkin ini penyebab TAL tapi karena
market sudah sepi mau Lebaran, reaksi pasar tidak menonjol:
- Current account Q1/2012 = DEFICIT $ 3,2 b
- Current account Q2/2012 = DEFICIT $ 6,9 atau 3,1% dari PDB
- DEFICIT membengkak dua kali !!! Peringatan IMF ternyata benar
Analisa Robert Prior (CS):
Rekor defisit ini menandakan:
- Kelemahan yg berkelanjutan atas Permintaan/demand luar negri
- Jatuhnya harga komoditi pada Q2
- OVERHEATING dari ekonomi domestik
Untungnya kejatuhan pada Current account, sebagian bisa ditutupi
dengan membaiknya neraca modal seperti Capital fund flow
- SURPLUS neraca modal naik dari $2,5 menjadi $5,5
Jadi Overall Balance of Payment (BOP) hanya deficit $2,8 atau
1,26% dari GDP
Posisi devisa = $107 b yaitu cukup untuk 5,7 bulan import, jadi
masih aman ...
Tapi membengkaknya Defisit Current account ini adalah
sebuah KELEMAHAN yg bersifat STRUKTURAL dari ekonomi Indonesia
yg JAGO KANDANG ...
Meningkatnya defisit Current account ini ditindak lanjuti BI
dengan menaikan 25 point rate FASBI (the lower-end of the central bank's interest rate band) to 4%.
Jumat, 10 Agustus 2012
Rekomendasi Saham - 10-08-2012
- IDX: Jakarta Composite index gained 40,46 points (0,99%), inline with our
prediction. We are still confident with the upper line target at around 4162 level.
From technical analysis point of view, our favorite sectors are infrastructure, with
sub-sector telco and some coal stocks. So, stick on your strategy. Today’s trading
range is between 4015 - 4100 - 4120 (support) and 4155 - 4162 - 4176
(resistance).
- ISAT: Increasing demand on this stock indicated a strong bull. We see the upward
trading range of IDR5150 - 5350, according to the upper line. TRADING BUY.
- ERAA: Bullish mode is still valid, following the doji style in the past two days. We
see upward trend,
prediction. We are still confident with the upper line target at around 4162 level.
From technical analysis point of view, our favorite sectors are infrastructure, with
sub-sector telco and some coal stocks. So, stick on your strategy. Today’s trading
range is between 4015 - 4100 - 4120 (support) and 4155 - 4162 - 4176
(resistance).
- ISAT: Increasing demand on this stock indicated a strong bull. We see the upward
trading range of IDR5150 - 5350, according to the upper line. TRADING BUY.
- ERAA: Bullish mode is still valid, following the doji style in the past two days. We
see upward trend,
Infrastructure: President signed land acquisition regulation
Infrastructure: President signed land acquisition regulation
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has finally signed a land acquisition
regulation of Presidential Decree No2/2012.
Investors and business in Indonesia have been waiting for the regulation for many
months.
The regulation set a maximum time of 583 days for the completion of land acquisition
and details steps to be taken for the handover of land for public projects.
The regulation would not be applicable retroactively.
Analyst Comment:
The regulation provides clarity on the time frame and steps to be taken in the land
acquisition process. The exact time frame should ensure timely completion of
infrastructure projects.
While we believe that the new regulation would accelerate the development in the
domestic infrastructure, it would only be applicable to the new projects. Projects
which currently undergoing land acquisition process would adhere to the previous
regulation.
Several sectors which should benefit from this new regulation are: Toll road,
construction, and cement.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has finally signed a land acquisition
regulation of Presidential Decree No2/2012.
Investors and business in Indonesia have been waiting for the regulation for many
months.
The regulation set a maximum time of 583 days for the completion of land acquisition
and details steps to be taken for the handover of land for public projects.
The regulation would not be applicable retroactively.
Analyst Comment:
The regulation provides clarity on the time frame and steps to be taken in the land
acquisition process. The exact time frame should ensure timely completion of
infrastructure projects.
While we believe that the new regulation would accelerate the development in the
domestic infrastructure, it would only be applicable to the new projects. Projects
which currently undergoing land acquisition process would adhere to the previous
regulation.
Several sectors which should benefit from this new regulation are: Toll road,
construction, and cement.
Banking (OVERWEIGHT): BI keeps benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75%
Banking (OVERWEIGHT): BI keeps benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75%
- Bank Indonesia keeps benchmark rate at 5.75%, inline with our estimate. We are
forecasting that current policy stance will last until the end of this year. This implies
that the maximum 6.25% Rupiah time deposit rate for the big banks remains.
Therefore, any changes in lending rates going forward will be driven more by
competition instead of cost pressure.
- We recommend BUY on BRI.IJ and BCA.IJ. Our TP for BBRI.IJ is IDR8,500/share
(12.6x 2012F PER; 3.3x 2012F PBV). For BBCA.IJ TP is IDR9,300/share (18.4x
2012F PER; 4.6x 2012F PBV).
- Bank Indonesia keeps benchmark rate at 5.75%, inline with our estimate. We are
forecasting that current policy stance will last until the end of this year. This implies
that the maximum 6.25% Rupiah time deposit rate for the big banks remains.
Therefore, any changes in lending rates going forward will be driven more by
competition instead of cost pressure.
- We recommend BUY on BRI.IJ and BCA.IJ. Our TP for BBRI.IJ is IDR8,500/share
(12.6x 2012F PER; 3.3x 2012F PBV). For BBCA.IJ TP is IDR9,300/share (18.4x
2012F PER; 4.6x 2012F PBV).
Rabu, 08 Agustus 2012
Berita Emiten - SMGR-PTBA-PGAS
SMGR akan akuisisi 2 pabrik di Myamar dan Thailand
PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) akan mengakuisisi 2 pabrik di Myanmar dan Thailand. Perseroan menyiapkan dana segar sebesar USD 300 juta. Perseroan akan membentuk joint venture dengan pabrik semen di di Myanmar berkapasitas 1 juta ton. Sedangkan perseroan akan membangun pabrik baru di Thailand. Investasi di Myanmar membutuhkan dana USD 100 juta atau setara Rp 1,5 triliun.
Sedangkan sisanya, untuk kepentingan membangun pabrik baru di Thailand. Langkah tersebut untuk memperkuat posisi SG di pasar Asean setelah kini menjadi leader di tingkat nasional. Semen Gresik juga akan membangun 2 pabrik baru di Jawa Tengah dan Sumatera dengan kapasitas produksi masing-masing 3 juta ton per tahun. Pada 2015 produksi SG Grup secara total diestimasikan bisa tembus 33 juta ton. Untuk memperkuat jaringan distribusi, SG telah mengoperasikan 8 buah pelabuhan dan 7 buah packing plant di seluruh Indonesia.
PTBA kerjasama dengan PLN untuk bangun PLTU 2 X 600 MW
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) bekerja sama dengan Tenaga Nasional Berhad, perusahaan listrik nasional Malaysia, dan PT PLN (Persero) akan membangun pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) mulut tambang di Peranap, Riau, dengan kapasitas terpasang 2×600 megawatt. Sebagian listrik yang dihasilkan PLTU tersebut akan diekspor ke Malaysia melalui kabel transmisi bawah laut. Sebanyak 50% daya listrik sisanya yang dihasilkan PLTU tersebut akan dipasok ke domestik di Sumatera.
PGAS telah habiskan dana sebesar USD 150 juta untuk bangun FSRU
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) telah menghabiskan dana USD 150 juta atau setara dengan 10% dari target investasi pengembangan terminal gas alam cair (floating storage and regasification unit/FSRU) mencapai USD 1,5 miliar. Dana tersebut digunakan untuk membiayai pembangunan FSRU di Jawa Barat dan Lampung. Terminal ini ditargetkan beroperasi pada 2014 dengan kapasitas sekitar 1,5-2 juta ton per tahun.
Perseroan ingin ikut terlibat dalam pembangunan infrastruktur pipa Trans Jawa yang menhubungkan Jawa Barat dan Jawa Timur. Perseroan menyiapkan Rp 2 triliun untuk ikut berinvestasi di proyek pipa transmisi tersebut.
PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) akan mengakuisisi 2 pabrik di Myanmar dan Thailand. Perseroan menyiapkan dana segar sebesar USD 300 juta. Perseroan akan membentuk joint venture dengan pabrik semen di di Myanmar berkapasitas 1 juta ton. Sedangkan perseroan akan membangun pabrik baru di Thailand. Investasi di Myanmar membutuhkan dana USD 100 juta atau setara Rp 1,5 triliun.
Sedangkan sisanya, untuk kepentingan membangun pabrik baru di Thailand. Langkah tersebut untuk memperkuat posisi SG di pasar Asean setelah kini menjadi leader di tingkat nasional. Semen Gresik juga akan membangun 2 pabrik baru di Jawa Tengah dan Sumatera dengan kapasitas produksi masing-masing 3 juta ton per tahun. Pada 2015 produksi SG Grup secara total diestimasikan bisa tembus 33 juta ton. Untuk memperkuat jaringan distribusi, SG telah mengoperasikan 8 buah pelabuhan dan 7 buah packing plant di seluruh Indonesia.
PTBA kerjasama dengan PLN untuk bangun PLTU 2 X 600 MW
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) bekerja sama dengan Tenaga Nasional Berhad, perusahaan listrik nasional Malaysia, dan PT PLN (Persero) akan membangun pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) mulut tambang di Peranap, Riau, dengan kapasitas terpasang 2×600 megawatt. Sebagian listrik yang dihasilkan PLTU tersebut akan diekspor ke Malaysia melalui kabel transmisi bawah laut. Sebanyak 50% daya listrik sisanya yang dihasilkan PLTU tersebut akan dipasok ke domestik di Sumatera.
PGAS telah habiskan dana sebesar USD 150 juta untuk bangun FSRU
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) telah menghabiskan dana USD 150 juta atau setara dengan 10% dari target investasi pengembangan terminal gas alam cair (floating storage and regasification unit/FSRU) mencapai USD 1,5 miliar. Dana tersebut digunakan untuk membiayai pembangunan FSRU di Jawa Barat dan Lampung. Terminal ini ditargetkan beroperasi pada 2014 dengan kapasitas sekitar 1,5-2 juta ton per tahun.
Perseroan ingin ikut terlibat dalam pembangunan infrastruktur pipa Trans Jawa yang menhubungkan Jawa Barat dan Jawa Timur. Perseroan menyiapkan Rp 2 triliun untuk ikut berinvestasi di proyek pipa transmisi tersebut.
Harga saham Bumi Plc di London Stock Exchange Naik 20%
harga saham Bumi Plc di London Stock Exchange beberapa hari belakangan ini sudah naik hampir 20% - tanggal 24 Juli 2012 harga masih 340.30, kemarin harga ditutup 380.0 (naik 19.65%)
Selasa, 07 Agustus 2012
PT Central Omega Resources Tbk (DKFT). Bangun Smelter Feronikel US$ 300 Juta
PT Central Omega Resources Tbk (DKFT), emiten tambang nikel, berencana membangun pabrik pengolahan dan pemurnian (smelter) feronikel berkapasitas 200 ribu ton per tahun senilai US$ 300 juta. Ciho Bangun, Direktur Operasi Central Omega, mengatakan pasokan untuk smelter tersebut berasal dari tambang milik perseroan.
Menurut rencana, smelter itu akan dibangun dalam dua tahap, yaitu tahap pertama dengan kapasitas 100 ribu ton feronikel yang beroperasi pada 2014. Kemudian akan ditingkatkan di tahap kedua menjadi 200 ribu ton pada 2015.
Rekomendasi Saham - 7-08-2012
- IDX: Jakarta Composite Index was up slightly by 5,68 points or just 0,14%. There
is no strong sentiment on the market, investors choose to wait and see. Assuming
the rupiah remains stable, there is opportunity for JCI to register a minor technical
rebound. We have positive calls for retail and trade sectors. Today’s trading range
is between 4005 - 4054 - 4077 (support) and 4126 - 4151 - 4162 (resistance).
- MAPI: Doji style was confirmed by a gap signal. Meaning, downward trend has
already stopped. We expect a technical rebound, short-term TP is IDR7600.
TRADING BUY.
- PTPP: Strong upper reversal on this stock, followed by upper gap. TP is IDR680.
TRADING BUY.
is no strong sentiment on the market, investors choose to wait and see. Assuming
the rupiah remains stable, there is opportunity for JCI to register a minor technical
rebound. We have positive calls for retail and trade sectors. Today’s trading range
is between 4005 - 4054 - 4077 (support) and 4126 - 4151 - 4162 (resistance).
- MAPI: Doji style was confirmed by a gap signal. Meaning, downward trend has
already stopped. We expect a technical rebound, short-term TP is IDR7600.
TRADING BUY.
- PTPP: Strong upper reversal on this stock, followed by upper gap. TP is IDR680.
TRADING BUY.
Berita Emiten - ADRO- MEDC- FREN- CPRO
ADRO telah keluarkan dana sebesar USD 52,2 juta untuk PLTU 2X30 MW
Selama kuartal II-2012, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) telah mengeluarkan biaya sebesar USD 52,2 juta untuk membiayai sejumlah proyek infrastruktur. Proyek-proyek itu antara lain sistem peremukan dan pengangkutan lapisan penutup, pembangkit listrik di mulut tambang berkapasitas 2X30 MW, serta peningkatan kapasitas. Tahun ini, perseroan merevisi target produksi batubara menjadi 48-51 juta ton dari semula 50-53 juta ton.
MEDC beli 25% kepemilikan Bloc Reliance Exploration and Production di Yaman
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) melalui anak perusahaan yang dimiliki sepenuhnya, yaitu Medco Yemen Malik Ltd., telah menandatangani perjanjian jual beli dengan Reliance Exploration and Production (Rep) DMCC untuk membeli 25% hak kepemilikannya di Block 9, Yaman pada 5 Juli 2012. Adapun tanggal keekonomian berlaku efektif pada 1 Januari 2012. Medco Energi dan RepDMCC sedang dalam proses penyelesaian SPA (Completion).
Setelah selesainya prasyarat dari transaksi ini antara lain mendapatkan persetujuan dari Kementerian Minyak dan Mineral Yaman, Medco Energi secara efektif akan memiliki 21,25% hak kepemilikan (setelah memperhitungkan pembagian yang dilakukan secara proporsional dari kepemilikan di Yemen Oil and Gas Company). Sehingga struktur kepemilikan di dalam Block 9 production sharing agreement antara lain Cavalley Petroleum (Cyprus) Ltd sebesar 42,50%, Medco Yemen Malik Ltd. 21,25%, Hood Oil Limited sebesar 21,25%, dan YOGC sebesar 15%.
Rugi bersih FREN pada Semester I 2012 naik 4%
PT Smartfren Telecom Tbk (FREN) membukukan Rugi bersih sebesar Rp 674,29 miliar atau Rp (37,98) per saham pada Semester I 2012. Rugi bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan naik 4% bila dibandingkan dengan Rugi bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 648,51miliar atau Rp (94,7) persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Beban perseroan mengalami peningkatan dari Rp 1,35 triliun menjadi Rp 1,50 triliun. Pendapatan Pokok perseroan mengalami kenaikan dari Rp 445,18 miliar menjadi Rp 670,25 miliar.
Rugi bersih perseroan mengalami kenaikan sebesar 4%, sedangkan EPS (Rugi bersih persaham / Earning Per share) mengalami penurunan sebesar 59,29%, ini disebabkan adanya Right issue pada tahun 2012, sehingga jumlah saham perseroan yang beredar lebih banyak.
Rugi bersih CPRO pada Semester I 2012 melonjat 140%
PT Central Proteinaprima Tbk (CPRO) membukukan Rugi bersih sebesar Rp 485 miliar atau Rp (12) per saham pada Semester I 2012. Rugi bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan meningkat 140% bila dibandingkan dengan Rugi bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 201,7 miliar atau Rp (5) persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Kerugian kurs pada semester I tahun ini sebesar Rp 195,35 miliar, sedangkan pada tahun lalu perseroan mengalami Keuntungan Kurs senilai Rp 165,24 miliar. Pendapatan Pokok perseroan mengalami menurun dari Rp 3,63 triliun menjadi Rp 3,53 triliun. Beban Pokok perseroan mengalami penurunan dari Rp 3,38 triliun menjadi Rp 3,08 triliun.
Selama kuartal II-2012, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) telah mengeluarkan biaya sebesar USD 52,2 juta untuk membiayai sejumlah proyek infrastruktur. Proyek-proyek itu antara lain sistem peremukan dan pengangkutan lapisan penutup, pembangkit listrik di mulut tambang berkapasitas 2X30 MW, serta peningkatan kapasitas. Tahun ini, perseroan merevisi target produksi batubara menjadi 48-51 juta ton dari semula 50-53 juta ton.
MEDC beli 25% kepemilikan Bloc Reliance Exploration and Production di Yaman
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) melalui anak perusahaan yang dimiliki sepenuhnya, yaitu Medco Yemen Malik Ltd., telah menandatangani perjanjian jual beli dengan Reliance Exploration and Production (Rep) DMCC untuk membeli 25% hak kepemilikannya di Block 9, Yaman pada 5 Juli 2012. Adapun tanggal keekonomian berlaku efektif pada 1 Januari 2012. Medco Energi dan RepDMCC sedang dalam proses penyelesaian SPA (Completion).
Setelah selesainya prasyarat dari transaksi ini antara lain mendapatkan persetujuan dari Kementerian Minyak dan Mineral Yaman, Medco Energi secara efektif akan memiliki 21,25% hak kepemilikan (setelah memperhitungkan pembagian yang dilakukan secara proporsional dari kepemilikan di Yemen Oil and Gas Company). Sehingga struktur kepemilikan di dalam Block 9 production sharing agreement antara lain Cavalley Petroleum (Cyprus) Ltd sebesar 42,50%, Medco Yemen Malik Ltd. 21,25%, Hood Oil Limited sebesar 21,25%, dan YOGC sebesar 15%.
Rugi bersih FREN pada Semester I 2012 naik 4%
PT Smartfren Telecom Tbk (FREN) membukukan Rugi bersih sebesar Rp 674,29 miliar atau Rp (37,98) per saham pada Semester I 2012. Rugi bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan naik 4% bila dibandingkan dengan Rugi bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 648,51miliar atau Rp (94,7) persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Beban perseroan mengalami peningkatan dari Rp 1,35 triliun menjadi Rp 1,50 triliun. Pendapatan Pokok perseroan mengalami kenaikan dari Rp 445,18 miliar menjadi Rp 670,25 miliar.
Rugi bersih perseroan mengalami kenaikan sebesar 4%, sedangkan EPS (Rugi bersih persaham / Earning Per share) mengalami penurunan sebesar 59,29%, ini disebabkan adanya Right issue pada tahun 2012, sehingga jumlah saham perseroan yang beredar lebih banyak.
Rugi bersih CPRO pada Semester I 2012 melonjat 140%
PT Central Proteinaprima Tbk (CPRO) membukukan Rugi bersih sebesar Rp 485 miliar atau Rp (12) per saham pada Semester I 2012. Rugi bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan meningkat 140% bila dibandingkan dengan Rugi bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 201,7 miliar atau Rp (5) persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Kerugian kurs pada semester I tahun ini sebesar Rp 195,35 miliar, sedangkan pada tahun lalu perseroan mengalami Keuntungan Kurs senilai Rp 165,24 miliar. Pendapatan Pokok perseroan mengalami menurun dari Rp 3,63 triliun menjadi Rp 3,53 triliun. Beban Pokok perseroan mengalami penurunan dari Rp 3,38 triliun menjadi Rp 3,08 triliun.
MANDIRI SEKURITAS INVESTOR DIGEST | Selasa 7 Agustus 2012
MANDIRI SEKURITAS INVESTOR’S DIGEST
What interest me the most in Indonesia today - BRMS
- In his speech at Diggers and Dealers mining conference in Kalgoorlie, Australia, Newmont’s head of Asia Pacific operation told the audience that its Elang prospect could have a bigger deposit than its Boddington mine in Australia. The company is continuing study on the project and mine life would be central in its discussion with the government.
- Boddington Gold Mine (BGM) is the largest gold mine in Australia, located 130km south-east of Perth. By end of 2011, proven ore reserves at Boddington were 20.3mn ounce of gold and 2.26bn pounds of copper. By way of comparison, Newmont’s current Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia has a proven ore reserves of 4.5mn ounce of gold and 2.96bn pounds of copper. So in terms of gold reserves, the Boddington mine is more than four times the size of Batu Hijau already; so it should be a shocker to the market to hear that Elang’s reserves may be even bigger.
- Boddington is a $2.4bn project was initially a three-way joint venture between Newmont Mining, AngloGold Ashanti and Newcrest Mining. In 2006 Newmont bought Newcrest's 22.22% share (price tag US$225mn), bringing its interest to 66.67% and ending any Australian ownership. AngloGold owned the remaining 33.33% (price tag US$1.1bn). In June 2009, Newmont became the sole owner of the mine by acquiring the 33.3% interest of AngloGold. The original, mainly oxide open-pit mine was closed at the end of 2001.
- BRMS has an effective 18% stake in PT Newmont Nusatenggara (PT NNT), who in turns own direct ownership in Batu Hijau and Elang mines. On 100% basis, we value PTNNT at US$9.6bn to arrive at our fair value of Rp830/share for BRMS, but we still assign zero value to Elang prospect. We are of the view that there could be big hidden value to be found in BRMS, with the main issue being how to unlock its true potential. We foresee a significant re-rating potential in BRMS should PT Bumi Resources Tbk surrenders its controlling stake in BRMS, on the basis that a new owner may offer better bankability and ability to form JVs with the global miners.
GDP 2Q12: Surprise on the upside on domestic demand
· The GDP growth in 2Q12 accelerated to 6.37% yoy, higher than expected as our and consensus estimates expected a marginal slowdown from the 1Q12 to 6.06% yoy and 6.10% yoy, respectively. The recent growth figure showed Indonesia’s high resiliency against external shock while other emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India have experienced an easing trend. Overall, the economy has grown by 6.35% yoy in 1H12.
· Investment spending surged at the fastest pace since 3Q08, increasing by 12.3% yoy in 2Q12 from 10.0% yoy 1Q12. The figure was stronger than we anticipated. Buoyant investment propelled by demand for machinery (18.3% yoy in 1Q12 v.s. 23.4% in 2Q12) and transportation (32.8% yoy in 1Q12 v.s. 60.3% yoy in 2Q12) due to expansion activity in the manufacturing sector, while building investment only recorded a slight increase to 7.3% yoy. The high demand of machinery and transportation were in line with the monthly data of capital goods imports revealed by the statistical agency as it grew 37% yoy in 2Q12. Moreover, investment contributed 2.9ppt of 6.4%, the highest compared with other variables.
· Private consumption marginally edged up to 5.0% yoy (the highest since 3Q10) from 4.9% yoy in 1Q12 while we expected a halt. Relatively stable inflation, improvement in labor market and income boosted purchasing power. From the government perspective, some spending expansion was also seen, which we think related to earlier projects bidding process and better budget absorption. Overall, private and government consumption contributed 2.8ppt and 0.5ppt to total 6.4% yoy growth.
· The wildcard: higher inventory accumulation. Inventory accumulation surprisingly contributed by 2.3ppt (36% to the GDP growth) the highest contributors after investment and private consumption. Higher inventory may suggest involuntary stock pile due to easing exports demand that may lead to reduction in output in the coming period. However, given the significantly consistent contribution of inventory since the 1Q12 that is coupled with continuing robust consumption and investment indicators, we view that the increase in inventory may also be intended to cater future potential demand. Thus, we expect the adjustment in output will be done gradually ahead.
· Net export contracted by 29.3% yoy in 2Q12 from positive 7.2% yoy in 1Q12 as a result of a lower external demand on export goods followed by rising internal demand for import goods. Export growth fell significantly from 7.9% yoy in 1Q12 to 1.9% yoy in 2Q12 as a result of a slower global economy. On the other hand, demand for import goods, especially capital goods kept increasing on solid investment activities. Interestingly, despite net exports contracted 29.3% yoy, its negative contribution was only 3.2ppt due to its declining share to GDP from 11.7% in end 2011 to 7.3% in 2Q12 (the lowest share since 2Q05).
· From the production side, solid domestic demand continued reflected in firm untradeable sector expansion, such as trade, communication, and services. Non-tradable sector recorded an increase from 7.6% yoy in 1Q12 to 8.0% yoy in 2Q12 while tradable sector growth slowed to 4.8% in 1Q12 v.s. 4.5% in 2Q12. Nevertheless, the slower pace on tradable sector was mostly due to the decline of petroleum and gas production while growth of manufacturing sector excluding petroleum and gas remained relatively stable at 6.1% yoy. Moreover, manufacturing sectors such as cement, transportation and machinery equipment recorded an increase which is in line with higher investment activities explained previously above.
· Robust growth gives wider room for BI to delay any policy relaxation for the time being, as the economy remains resilient against global economic turmoil. Looking through the 2H12, we still expect strong domestic demand to prevail, particularly given strong FDI inflow and robust consumer purchasing power. However, at the same time uncertainty in European economies has adversely affected the core Asian emerging economies, such as China and India that have more direct impact to Indonesia. Accordingly, we maintain our GDP forecast at 6.2% and 6.5% for FY12 and FY13, with an upside risk should the domestic demand resiliency be maintained. Against this background and with relatively stable inflation, we think BI will continue to keep the policy rate unchanged for the remainder of 2012 at 5.75% and continue to focus on maintaining rupiah stability, through securing sustainable foreign exchange financing for the deficit in current account (see Macroscope: Inflation rose on seasonal factor, trade deficit hit record high). At this juncture, we maintain our rupiah forecast at Rp9,320/US$ and Rp9,210/US$ in end of 2012 and 2013 respectively.
Automotive: 2W sales up 8.1%mom in July with FIF ramping up its sharia unit
- Preliminary domestic motorcycles sales (wholesale) grew 8.1%mom (-20.6%yoy) to 585,658 units in July, as dealers do more stock up to anticipate the upcoming Ramadan season. Despite coming from a low base, the gain was also quite unexpected as a minimum 20% down-payment for motorcycles financing has been implemented since 15 June, giving some signals of purchasing power resiliency.
- Cumulatively, 7M12 sales still down by 10.6%yoy to 4.3mn units, weakened further from the 8.7%yoy drop in 6M12. With shorter working days, August sales would likely to show a month-on-month contraction.
- Looking at the YTD decline, further downside from our 7.5% decline in FY12F total domestic motorcycles sales is possible. On the good side, we think that Honda could meet our 2.9% decline assumption for the full-year. Its 1H12 sales remained flat against 8.7%yoy industry decline, while Bisnis Indonesia today quoted that Federal International Finance (FIF), the motorcycles financing arm of Astra International (ASII), has channeled about 50% of July’s financing through its sharia unit. As we all know, the newly implemented LTV ruling does not apply to sharia-based financing. Strong support from PermataBank Syariah, a subsidiary of ASII’s 44.5%-owned Bank Permata, will be the competitive advantage of FIF’s funding
FROM THE PRESS
PTBA, PLN and Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) will build steam power plant
PTBA, PLN and Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) will build steam power plant with capacity of 2 X 600 MW in Riau. Total investment is Rp15tn. The construction of steam power plant is expected to be commenced at the end of 2013 and finished in 2016-2017. PTBA will supply coal to the steam power plant between 5 – 6 mn ton per year. Comment: This steam power plant project will benefit PTBA by adding coal sales volume in 2016-2017
What interest me the most in Indonesia today - BRMS
- In his speech at Diggers and Dealers mining conference in Kalgoorlie, Australia, Newmont’s head of Asia Pacific operation told the audience that its Elang prospect could have a bigger deposit than its Boddington mine in Australia. The company is continuing study on the project and mine life would be central in its discussion with the government.
- Boddington Gold Mine (BGM) is the largest gold mine in Australia, located 130km south-east of Perth. By end of 2011, proven ore reserves at Boddington were 20.3mn ounce of gold and 2.26bn pounds of copper. By way of comparison, Newmont’s current Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia has a proven ore reserves of 4.5mn ounce of gold and 2.96bn pounds of copper. So in terms of gold reserves, the Boddington mine is more than four times the size of Batu Hijau already; so it should be a shocker to the market to hear that Elang’s reserves may be even bigger.
- Boddington is a $2.4bn project was initially a three-way joint venture between Newmont Mining, AngloGold Ashanti and Newcrest Mining. In 2006 Newmont bought Newcrest's 22.22% share (price tag US$225mn), bringing its interest to 66.67% and ending any Australian ownership. AngloGold owned the remaining 33.33% (price tag US$1.1bn). In June 2009, Newmont became the sole owner of the mine by acquiring the 33.3% interest of AngloGold. The original, mainly oxide open-pit mine was closed at the end of 2001.
- BRMS has an effective 18% stake in PT Newmont Nusatenggara (PT NNT), who in turns own direct ownership in Batu Hijau and Elang mines. On 100% basis, we value PTNNT at US$9.6bn to arrive at our fair value of Rp830/share for BRMS, but we still assign zero value to Elang prospect. We are of the view that there could be big hidden value to be found in BRMS, with the main issue being how to unlock its true potential. We foresee a significant re-rating potential in BRMS should PT Bumi Resources Tbk surrenders its controlling stake in BRMS, on the basis that a new owner may offer better bankability and ability to form JVs with the global miners.
GDP 2Q12: Surprise on the upside on domestic demand
· The GDP growth in 2Q12 accelerated to 6.37% yoy, higher than expected as our and consensus estimates expected a marginal slowdown from the 1Q12 to 6.06% yoy and 6.10% yoy, respectively. The recent growth figure showed Indonesia’s high resiliency against external shock while other emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India have experienced an easing trend. Overall, the economy has grown by 6.35% yoy in 1H12.
· Investment spending surged at the fastest pace since 3Q08, increasing by 12.3% yoy in 2Q12 from 10.0% yoy 1Q12. The figure was stronger than we anticipated. Buoyant investment propelled by demand for machinery (18.3% yoy in 1Q12 v.s. 23.4% in 2Q12) and transportation (32.8% yoy in 1Q12 v.s. 60.3% yoy in 2Q12) due to expansion activity in the manufacturing sector, while building investment only recorded a slight increase to 7.3% yoy. The high demand of machinery and transportation were in line with the monthly data of capital goods imports revealed by the statistical agency as it grew 37% yoy in 2Q12. Moreover, investment contributed 2.9ppt of 6.4%, the highest compared with other variables.
· Private consumption marginally edged up to 5.0% yoy (the highest since 3Q10) from 4.9% yoy in 1Q12 while we expected a halt. Relatively stable inflation, improvement in labor market and income boosted purchasing power. From the government perspective, some spending expansion was also seen, which we think related to earlier projects bidding process and better budget absorption. Overall, private and government consumption contributed 2.8ppt and 0.5ppt to total 6.4% yoy growth.
· The wildcard: higher inventory accumulation. Inventory accumulation surprisingly contributed by 2.3ppt (36% to the GDP growth) the highest contributors after investment and private consumption. Higher inventory may suggest involuntary stock pile due to easing exports demand that may lead to reduction in output in the coming period. However, given the significantly consistent contribution of inventory since the 1Q12 that is coupled with continuing robust consumption and investment indicators, we view that the increase in inventory may also be intended to cater future potential demand. Thus, we expect the adjustment in output will be done gradually ahead.
· Net export contracted by 29.3% yoy in 2Q12 from positive 7.2% yoy in 1Q12 as a result of a lower external demand on export goods followed by rising internal demand for import goods. Export growth fell significantly from 7.9% yoy in 1Q12 to 1.9% yoy in 2Q12 as a result of a slower global economy. On the other hand, demand for import goods, especially capital goods kept increasing on solid investment activities. Interestingly, despite net exports contracted 29.3% yoy, its negative contribution was only 3.2ppt due to its declining share to GDP from 11.7% in end 2011 to 7.3% in 2Q12 (the lowest share since 2Q05).
· From the production side, solid domestic demand continued reflected in firm untradeable sector expansion, such as trade, communication, and services. Non-tradable sector recorded an increase from 7.6% yoy in 1Q12 to 8.0% yoy in 2Q12 while tradable sector growth slowed to 4.8% in 1Q12 v.s. 4.5% in 2Q12. Nevertheless, the slower pace on tradable sector was mostly due to the decline of petroleum and gas production while growth of manufacturing sector excluding petroleum and gas remained relatively stable at 6.1% yoy. Moreover, manufacturing sectors such as cement, transportation and machinery equipment recorded an increase which is in line with higher investment activities explained previously above.
· Robust growth gives wider room for BI to delay any policy relaxation for the time being, as the economy remains resilient against global economic turmoil. Looking through the 2H12, we still expect strong domestic demand to prevail, particularly given strong FDI inflow and robust consumer purchasing power. However, at the same time uncertainty in European economies has adversely affected the core Asian emerging economies, such as China and India that have more direct impact to Indonesia. Accordingly, we maintain our GDP forecast at 6.2% and 6.5% for FY12 and FY13, with an upside risk should the domestic demand resiliency be maintained. Against this background and with relatively stable inflation, we think BI will continue to keep the policy rate unchanged for the remainder of 2012 at 5.75% and continue to focus on maintaining rupiah stability, through securing sustainable foreign exchange financing for the deficit in current account (see Macroscope: Inflation rose on seasonal factor, trade deficit hit record high). At this juncture, we maintain our rupiah forecast at Rp9,320/US$ and Rp9,210/US$ in end of 2012 and 2013 respectively.
Automotive: 2W sales up 8.1%mom in July with FIF ramping up its sharia unit
- Preliminary domestic motorcycles sales (wholesale) grew 8.1%mom (-20.6%yoy) to 585,658 units in July, as dealers do more stock up to anticipate the upcoming Ramadan season. Despite coming from a low base, the gain was also quite unexpected as a minimum 20% down-payment for motorcycles financing has been implemented since 15 June, giving some signals of purchasing power resiliency.
- Cumulatively, 7M12 sales still down by 10.6%yoy to 4.3mn units, weakened further from the 8.7%yoy drop in 6M12. With shorter working days, August sales would likely to show a month-on-month contraction.
- Looking at the YTD decline, further downside from our 7.5% decline in FY12F total domestic motorcycles sales is possible. On the good side, we think that Honda could meet our 2.9% decline assumption for the full-year. Its 1H12 sales remained flat against 8.7%yoy industry decline, while Bisnis Indonesia today quoted that Federal International Finance (FIF), the motorcycles financing arm of Astra International (ASII), has channeled about 50% of July’s financing through its sharia unit. As we all know, the newly implemented LTV ruling does not apply to sharia-based financing. Strong support from PermataBank Syariah, a subsidiary of ASII’s 44.5%-owned Bank Permata, will be the competitive advantage of FIF’s funding
FROM THE PRESS
PTBA, PLN and Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) will build steam power plant
PTBA, PLN and Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) will build steam power plant with capacity of 2 X 600 MW in Riau. Total investment is Rp15tn. The construction of steam power plant is expected to be commenced at the end of 2013 and finished in 2016-2017. PTBA will supply coal to the steam power plant between 5 – 6 mn ton per year. Comment: This steam power plant project will benefit PTBA by adding coal sales volume in 2016-2017
Senin, 06 Agustus 2012
Rekomendasi Saham
Rekomendasi Saham
- IDX: Jakarta Composite index gained a modest +6,70 points or just +0,16%. The
market is still above our major support level (4005). Assuming that the market can
sustain above that level, minor technical rebound should happen. We have a
positive call for consumer stocks again. Today’s trading range is between 4005 -
4057 - 4079 (support) and 4123 - 4144 - 4162 (resistance).
- INDF: Parabolic SAR indicated the stock moving into positive direction, supported
by golden cross from MacD side too. We expect buying pressure to increase, with
its target IDR5700, as mid-term target. TRADING BUY.
- TSPC: This stock is sustainable above MA 200 day, with upward movement
potential. Technical rebound looks likely to reach IDR2850. TRADING BUY.
- IDX: Jakarta Composite index gained a modest +6,70 points or just +0,16%. The
market is still above our major support level (4005). Assuming that the market can
sustain above that level, minor technical rebound should happen. We have a
positive call for consumer stocks again. Today’s trading range is between 4005 -
4057 - 4079 (support) and 4123 - 4144 - 4162 (resistance).
- INDF: Parabolic SAR indicated the stock moving into positive direction, supported
by golden cross from MacD side too. We expect buying pressure to increase, with
its target IDR5700, as mid-term target. TRADING BUY.
- TSPC: This stock is sustainable above MA 200 day, with upward movement
potential. Technical rebound looks likely to reach IDR2850. TRADING BUY.
Berita Emiten - TBLA- UNVR- TOTL - TINS- ACES- TLKM- TINS
Laba bersih TBLA pada Semester I 2012 turun 78,89%
PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 183,82 miliar atau Rp 37,19 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan penurunan 78,89% bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 312,73 miliar atau Rp 66,53 (Dilusian 65,50) persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan menurun dari Rp 2,07 triliun pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 1,93 triliun pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 1,32 triliun menjadi Rp 1,35 triliun.
Laba bersih UNVR pada Semester I 2012 tumbuh 12,54%
PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 2,07 triliun atau Rp 271 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan kenaikan 12,54% bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 2,33 triliun atau Rp 305 persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 11,46 triliun pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 13,36 triliun pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 5,56 triliun menjadi Rp 6,62 triliun.
Laba bersih TOTL pada Semester I 2012 tumbuh 38,40%
PT Total Bangun Persada Tbk (TOTL) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 84,07 miliar atau Rp 24,65 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan kenaikan 38,40% bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 60,73 miliar atau Rp 17,81 persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 763,11 miliar pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 856,47 miliar pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 640,86 miliar menjadi Rp 702,11 miliar.
Laba bersih TINS pada Semester I 2012 turun 51,82%
PT Timah Tbk (TINS) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 335,84 miliar atau Rp 66 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan penurunan 51,82% bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 688,99 miliar atau Rp 137 persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan menurun dari Rp 4,83 triliun pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 4,13 triliun pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban Pokok perseroan menurun dari Rp 3,58 triliun menjadi Rp 3,34 triliun.
Laba bersih TLKM pada Semester I 2012 tumbuh 10,59%
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 6,43 triliun atau Rp 333,97 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan kenaikan 10,59% bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 5,94 triliun atau Rp 302,05 persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 34,37 triliun pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 36,72 triliun pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban perseroan meningkat dari Rp 23,32 triliun menjadi Rp 24,80 triliun.
SSIA targetkan laba bersih tahun ini sebesar Rp 650 miliar
PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) menaikkan target laba bersih tahun ini menjadi Rp 650 miliar dari sebelumnya Rp 550 miliar. Jumlah itu meningkat 152% dibandingkan laba bersih 2011 sebesar Rp 257 miliar. Revisi target dilakukan karena kinerja keuangan pada semester I-2012 naik tajam. Selain itu, prospek usaha unit bisnis perseroan, terutama konstruksi dan properti pada semester II masih relatif baik.
Laba bersih ACES pada Semester I 2012 tumbuh 53,39%
PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk (ACES) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 169,68 miliar atau Rp 98,94 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan kenaikan 53,39 % bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 110,62 miliar atau Rp 64,50 persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 1,05 triliun pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 1,43 triliun pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban perseroan meningkat dari Rp 575,76 miliar menjadi Rp 736,84 miliar.
PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 183,82 miliar atau Rp 37,19 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan penurunan 78,89% bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 312,73 miliar atau Rp 66,53 (Dilusian 65,50) persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan menurun dari Rp 2,07 triliun pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 1,93 triliun pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 1,32 triliun menjadi Rp 1,35 triliun.
Laba bersih UNVR pada Semester I 2012 tumbuh 12,54%
PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 2,07 triliun atau Rp 271 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan kenaikan 12,54% bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 2,33 triliun atau Rp 305 persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 11,46 triliun pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 13,36 triliun pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 5,56 triliun menjadi Rp 6,62 triliun.
Laba bersih TOTL pada Semester I 2012 tumbuh 38,40%
PT Total Bangun Persada Tbk (TOTL) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 84,07 miliar atau Rp 24,65 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan kenaikan 38,40% bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 60,73 miliar atau Rp 17,81 persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 763,11 miliar pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 856,47 miliar pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 640,86 miliar menjadi Rp 702,11 miliar.
Laba bersih TINS pada Semester I 2012 turun 51,82%
PT Timah Tbk (TINS) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 335,84 miliar atau Rp 66 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan penurunan 51,82% bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 688,99 miliar atau Rp 137 persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan menurun dari Rp 4,83 triliun pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 4,13 triliun pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban Pokok perseroan menurun dari Rp 3,58 triliun menjadi Rp 3,34 triliun.
Laba bersih TLKM pada Semester I 2012 tumbuh 10,59%
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 6,43 triliun atau Rp 333,97 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan kenaikan 10,59% bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 5,94 triliun atau Rp 302,05 persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 34,37 triliun pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 36,72 triliun pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban perseroan meningkat dari Rp 23,32 triliun menjadi Rp 24,80 triliun.
SSIA targetkan laba bersih tahun ini sebesar Rp 650 miliar
PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) menaikkan target laba bersih tahun ini menjadi Rp 650 miliar dari sebelumnya Rp 550 miliar. Jumlah itu meningkat 152% dibandingkan laba bersih 2011 sebesar Rp 257 miliar. Revisi target dilakukan karena kinerja keuangan pada semester I-2012 naik tajam. Selain itu, prospek usaha unit bisnis perseroan, terutama konstruksi dan properti pada semester II masih relatif baik.
Laba bersih ACES pada Semester I 2012 tumbuh 53,39%
PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk (ACES) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 169,68 miliar atau Rp 98,94 per saham pada Semester I 2012. Laba bersih Semester I 2012 menunjukan kenaikan 53,39 % bila dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada Semester I tahun lalu sebesar Rp 110,62 miliar atau Rp 64,50 persaham. Hal ini disebabkan oleh Pendapatan Pokok perseroan meningkat dari Rp 1,05 triliun pada Semester I tahun lalu menjadi Rp 1,43 triliun pada Semester I tahun ini. Beban perseroan meningkat dari Rp 575,76 miliar menjadi Rp 736,84 miliar.
WATCH Saham Yg Memiliki Prospek Bagus : ATPK
WATCH Saham Yg Memiliki Prospek Bagus: ATPK
ATPK: menargetkan volume produksi batu bara dari dua anak usahanya, yaitu PT Mega Alam Sejahtera dan PT Sarana Mandiri Utama, sebesar 1,8 juta ton pada 2012, naik 200% dari proyeksi tahun ini sebesar 600 ribu ton dari tambang Mega Alam. Albert J Bangun, Direktur ATPK [230 0 (+0,0%)] Resources, mengatakan produksi batu bara dari tambang Mega Alam nantinya meningkat sebesar 125 ribu ton per bulan menjadi sekitar 1,5 juta ton di 2012, naik 120% dari produksi per bulan pada tahun ini sebesar 50-60 ribu ton per bulan.
"Capaian itu ditopang dengan adanya penambahan berbagai fasilitas tambang dan pembukaan pit baru, sehingga produksi di 2013 naik mencapai 1,8 juta ton," ujar Albert
WATCH Saham Yg Memiliki Prospek Bagus: ATPK: bagaikan mutiara dalam lumpur, tambang batubara dengan luas lahan lebih besar daripada KKGI, dengan kalori lebih baik daripada yang dimiliki HRUM
ATPK: menargetkan volume produksi batu bara dari dua anak usahanya, yaitu PT Mega Alam Sejahtera dan PT Sarana Mandiri Utama, sebesar 1,8 juta ton pada 2012, naik 200% dari proyeksi tahun ini sebesar 600 ribu ton dari tambang Mega Alam. Albert J Bangun, Direktur ATPK [230 0 (+0,0%)] Resources, mengatakan produksi batu bara dari tambang Mega Alam nantinya meningkat sebesar 125 ribu ton per bulan menjadi sekitar 1,5 juta ton di 2012, naik 120% dari produksi per bulan pada tahun ini sebesar 50-60 ribu ton per bulan.
"Capaian itu ditopang dengan adanya penambahan berbagai fasilitas tambang dan pembukaan pit baru, sehingga produksi di 2013 naik mencapai 1,8 juta ton," ujar Albert
WATCH Saham Yg Memiliki Prospek Bagus: ATPK: bagaikan mutiara dalam lumpur, tambang batubara dengan luas lahan lebih besar daripada KKGI, dengan kalori lebih baik daripada yang dimiliki HRUM
MANDIRI SEKURITAS INVESTOR’S DIGEST
MANDIRI SEKURITAS INVESTOR’S DIGEST
BJTM: Small but beautiful (BJTM, Rp 425, Buy, TP: Rp 580)
· Being among the top five in terms of lending and deposit taking in the region of East Java, PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur Tbk (Bank Jatim) was established in 1961 and earned its foreign exchange bank status in 1990. Compared with the nine listed banks which are closely followed by the market, the bank ranks top quartile in profitability (as measured by RoE, loan yield, and NIM), top quartile in terms of loan quality (NPL), and top quartile in terms of efficiency (operating cost-to-operating income). Post-IPO, the bank will become top quartile in terms of balance sheet backing, as measured by capital adequacy (CAR) and other financial leverage ratios.
· Low risk loan portfolio, with NPL below 1% in the last eight years. Payroll loans to civil servants, government-subsidized micro loans, and government-related medium and corporate loans account for about 83% of loan portfolio as of end-2011. The payroll loan is the bank’s single most important loan product to date, accounting for 59% of its loan portfolio.
· Strong local brand and loyal customers. The bank has been managing civil servant payroll for the regional government of East Java since its establishment, which by end-2011 has grown to more than 450 thousand accounts. The bank has also earned its reputation as the lender of choice for certain groups of borrowers, by participating in a number of government subsidized loan programs.
· Upside from the higher profile, transparency, and growth ambition by being a publicly listed bank. Few people would understand how low the risk of Bank Jatim’s loan portfolio actually is, and how efficient the bank is, had the bank not gone for its IPO. While keeping its focus on safety and profitability, we anticipate the management will up the ante on growth targets, leveraging on its strong local brand, loyal customer base, and deep local presence.
· Bad news on fraud related provisions out of the way, buy BJTM on FY13F outlook and valuation. The newly announced 2Q12 net profit fell by 31% QoQ and 20% YoY, on the back of Rp94bn one-off provision expense, which is already anticipated at the time of IPO. We initiate coverage on BJTM with a Buy rating and Rp580(36% upside) price target, based on 8.5x PER, 1.4x PBV, and 6.2% dividend yield on FY13F.
GDP 2Q12 preview : Moderating growth on external factor
- The statistics bureau will announce 2Q12 GDP growth data on Monday, 6th June. We expect economic growth to have accelerated to 2.52% qoq in 2Q12, while the on-year growth likely slowed marginally to 6.06% yoy in 2Q12 from 6.31% in 1Q12. Domestic demand likely remained as the driver of the economic growth, while the impact of the global economic slowdown is getting severer.
- Specifically, consumption activity among the middle-income class was relatively resilient yet consumption of lower income consumers may have slowed down as inflationary pressure, especially food inflation, mounted. On the other hand, exports continued to deteriorate due to global economic turmoil while imports remained firm due to investment activities.
- Nevertheless, the bright side is investment activities remained upbeat fueled by robust FDI and cheaper banking financing costs. From the production side, we see un-tradable sector likely continued growing healthily, led by trade and communications sectors, while manufacturing held up well, although headwind from falling external demand. Deeper slow down is expected to be seen in the mining sector as declining commodities prices and government regulation in banning raw mineral exports may have discouraged the sector output.
BJTM: Small but beautiful (BJTM, Rp 425, Buy, TP: Rp 580)
· Being among the top five in terms of lending and deposit taking in the region of East Java, PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur Tbk (Bank Jatim) was established in 1961 and earned its foreign exchange bank status in 1990. Compared with the nine listed banks which are closely followed by the market, the bank ranks top quartile in profitability (as measured by RoE, loan yield, and NIM), top quartile in terms of loan quality (NPL), and top quartile in terms of efficiency (operating cost-to-operating income). Post-IPO, the bank will become top quartile in terms of balance sheet backing, as measured by capital adequacy (CAR) and other financial leverage ratios.
· Low risk loan portfolio, with NPL below 1% in the last eight years. Payroll loans to civil servants, government-subsidized micro loans, and government-related medium and corporate loans account for about 83% of loan portfolio as of end-2011. The payroll loan is the bank’s single most important loan product to date, accounting for 59% of its loan portfolio.
· Strong local brand and loyal customers. The bank has been managing civil servant payroll for the regional government of East Java since its establishment, which by end-2011 has grown to more than 450 thousand accounts. The bank has also earned its reputation as the lender of choice for certain groups of borrowers, by participating in a number of government subsidized loan programs.
· Upside from the higher profile, transparency, and growth ambition by being a publicly listed bank. Few people would understand how low the risk of Bank Jatim’s loan portfolio actually is, and how efficient the bank is, had the bank not gone for its IPO. While keeping its focus on safety and profitability, we anticipate the management will up the ante on growth targets, leveraging on its strong local brand, loyal customer base, and deep local presence.
· Bad news on fraud related provisions out of the way, buy BJTM on FY13F outlook and valuation. The newly announced 2Q12 net profit fell by 31% QoQ and 20% YoY, on the back of Rp94bn one-off provision expense, which is already anticipated at the time of IPO. We initiate coverage on BJTM with a Buy rating and Rp580(36% upside) price target, based on 8.5x PER, 1.4x PBV, and 6.2% dividend yield on FY13F.
GDP 2Q12 preview : Moderating growth on external factor
- The statistics bureau will announce 2Q12 GDP growth data on Monday, 6th June. We expect economic growth to have accelerated to 2.52% qoq in 2Q12, while the on-year growth likely slowed marginally to 6.06% yoy in 2Q12 from 6.31% in 1Q12. Domestic demand likely remained as the driver of the economic growth, while the impact of the global economic slowdown is getting severer.
- Specifically, consumption activity among the middle-income class was relatively resilient yet consumption of lower income consumers may have slowed down as inflationary pressure, especially food inflation, mounted. On the other hand, exports continued to deteriorate due to global economic turmoil while imports remained firm due to investment activities.
- Nevertheless, the bright side is investment activities remained upbeat fueled by robust FDI and cheaper banking financing costs. From the production side, we see un-tradable sector likely continued growing healthily, led by trade and communications sectors, while manufacturing held up well, although headwind from falling external demand. Deeper slow down is expected to be seen in the mining sector as declining commodities prices and government regulation in banning raw mineral exports may have discouraged the sector output.
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